From January to July this year, the domestic automobile production and sales unexpectedly grew at a rapid rate, with 7,101,900 vehicles, an increase of 20.23% year-on-year, and sales of 7,184,400 vehicles, an increase of 23.38% year-on-year. In accordance with the law of previous years, June entered the off-season of automobile production and sales. However, in June this year, the automobile production and sales continued to grow at a small rate compared with May, leaving a deep impression on people. This shows that the strong growth of the auto market this year has a solid foundation. In June, it produced 1,153,100 vehicles, an increase of 4.18% from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 37.73%; sales of 1,142,100 units, an increase of 2.00% from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 36.48%.
The rapid growth of the automotive market is primarily due to the improvement of the macroeconomic situation. In the impact of the global financial crisis, China's economy has maintained a strong vigor, GDP growth of 7.1% year-on-year. Since the beginning of this year, the state has issued a series of policies to encourage auto consumption, such as halving the purchase tax for small-displacement vehicles, moving cars to the countryside, replacing old cars with old ones, and so on, which has played a strong stimulating role in the auto market.
According to the growth forecast in the first half of the year, the total vehicle production this year could exceed 11 million, which is approximately 11.5 million vehicles. Due to the factors of replenishment in the first half of the year and the impact of the third quarter, the total output in the second half of the year will not exceed the first half.
The government’s policy of stimulating auto consumption is the strongest in the world, at around 15 billion yuan. Foreign countries generally trade in new ones, with a term of three months to six months. The United States has a quota of 2 billion U.S. dollars. It is expected that the growth rate of auto production this year will be only 4%-5%. Therefore, at least 10% of the 15% growth in automobile production in the first half of the year comes from policy stimuli. In the stimulus policy, halving the purchase tax for small-displacement vehicles and replacing old-for-new cars with old ones are the policies for this year. Cars go to the countryside as a multi-year policy, and how the next year’s policy trends will have the greatest impact on the development of the automobile market. According to media reports, relevant departments are studying issues such as automobile tax reform and automobile fuel consumption limits next year, so the automobile consumption policy will change significantly next year. First of all, the auto market will rely on its own momentum to maintain a certain growth, but due to the growth of domestic demand other than investment is still limited, the market will not play a strong role; Second, the policy stimulus will weaken, so the next year's auto output growth will be Will be below 15%. Predicting the market for next year should be preceded by the impact of policy stimuli, forecasting by convention, and then the impact of policy changes.
The situation is more complex in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, and it is very difficult to predict. The growth of the auto market itself has a strong regularity, but the influence of external factors, especially policy factors, is the most difficult to predict, so the automobile consumption policy of the next year will become the focus of attention. Some foreign economists oppose the government's efforts to stimulate automobile consumption, because after the implementation of the policy, the market will experience a decline in retaliability. This view has some truth and deserves our consideration. If it is not possible to timely announce the next year’s auto consumption stimulus policy, all kinds of suspicions will fly and consumers will be at a loss, and there may be a clear wave of buying at the end of the year. The surge in buying will have an impact on the normal order of auto production, which will not meet demand. Short-term shortages Goods, stocks are in a hurry, and in the first quarter of next year, there will be a sudden market and sales will be difficult. The key to solving this problem is that government policies should be announced earlier and stabilize market confidence. At the same time, we must maintain policy continuity and not change too drastically.
The structural growth of the auto market this year is very prominent, and there will be some changes next year. As the base number increases, the growth rate of crossover passenger cars will slow down, and small-displacement cars will still maintain a more prosperous growth, and the SUV will grow steadily. From June onwards, the commercial vehicle market began to pick up. It will grow slightly in the second half of the year and will continue to grow steadily next year. However, the tractor-trailer may still experience a certain degree of decline.
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